Wednesday, January 13, 2021

Jugaad: Cryptos - The Biggest Scam ever? (Day 12)

 What kind of Jugaar the cryptocurrencies are?

It IS a Jugar in my opinion. Jugar in Spanish means to play, to bet, to gamble. Surprising, Jugar is a popular word in many countries, and it has more or less the same meaning too. Jugar as a gamble is a common word in Middle and South Asia, the Indian subcontinent.

CryptoCurrencies (we will refer to them at Cryptos in this post) really started as a Jugaad to replace fiat currencies. Every country has its own currency. Currencies of some countries have rapidly depreciating value because sometimes their government keeps printing more currency. So some genius whose identity is really not known, named Satoshi Nakamoto, came out with some computer algorithm. He created BitCoins. Probably, he created, as a one-man show, some program/algorithm that is valued today almost around $700 Billion USD! (Bitcoin is a currency but unfortunately, to have some value, it has to be quoted in USD or some other currency! It is so surprising that it trades in USD, like some stock, bond or asset!) 

Why the Jugaad of Cryptos is more like some Jugar?

  • For a currency, the most important thing is that it should have a stable value. Bitcoin first started trading from around $0.0008 to $0.08 USD in July 2010. Since then it has simply skyrocketed! If you bought bitcoins for 1 USD at that time and say you got 1000 bitcoins. At today's price of around $35000 per bitcoin, that your 1 dollar would be worth 35 million dollars. 
    Does this sound like some currency or more like some bubble, speculation, or Jugar?
  • A new currency: for who?  My question: Who needs a new currency. I don't need it. Probably, you don't need it. Inflation is not a real issue that affects most of us in real life. If prices go up, the income also goes up the most. If you are really worried about losing 2-3 percent of the value of your savings in USD, think of this scenario: cryptos change value almost 2-5% in a week!! Around 100% in a year. When the crypto prices are going up, well and good but if they start dropping, how would you be able to have lost 10% of the purchasing power of your hard-earned money in a month! This is like, we are living in the super inflationary economies of the third world. Are you ready to imagine yourself living in Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Sudan, Lebanon, Iran, etc.?
  • How are Cryptos created? They are given as rewards for miners. The Bitcoin reward that miners receive is an incentive that motivates people to assist in the primary purpose of mining: to legitimize and monitor Bitcoin transactions, ensuring their validity. 
    My simple question: Currently the miners do the work of validating transactions. As they say that, bitcoins are limited, unlike currencies created by countries. So at some point, all Bitcoins would be mined. Then there will be no one mining. Who would at that time monitor and validate the transactions??? Would the world for cryptos turn into a wild wild west?
  • Now, not even a .01% of transactions are in cryptos, and still, it takes a tremendous amount of computer power to validate and monitor transactions (the work done by miners.)
    Now imagine there is no mining and if Crypots become a currency of choice, and the volume jumps by a hundred times. How do you think the transaction validation will be done?
  • One issue with Bitcoin is double-spending.
    Double spending is a scenario in which a bitcoin owner illicitly spends the same bitcoin twice. With physical currency, this isn't an issue: once you hand someone a $20 bill to buy a bottle of vodka, you no longer have it, so there's no danger you could use that same $20 bill to buy lotto tickets next door. Isn't this a simple problem?
    We know that the Internet is full of spammers, hackers and cheaters so when there is an issue of double spending and probably no mining/data validation in the future, how can you be assured that there will not be double/triple/ centuple (100 times)/ multiple (1000 time) spending of the same coin?
    With this issue, I am sure we all are safe, and more comfortable, accepting USD than some cryptocurrency.
  • Crypto mining has another interesting twist. In order to be awarded a Bitcoin, you have to be the first miner to arrive at the right answer, or closest answer, to a numeric problem.
    LOL, I am still not able to understand what kind of problems miners are solving? Are they solving Rubik's cube, or playing chess against some master chess players, or solving some super-duper tough sudokus?? LOL
    I still have to come across some genius solution to some pressing problem found by some genius miner. Do you know any problem or situation where a miner helped the world find an answer or a solution?
    Shouldn't we all be aware of the outputs and benefits generated from keeping computers busy, consuming energy, and contributing to global warming by running super powerful CPUs and GPUs?
  • From Investopedia:

    "What do you mean, 'the right answer to a numeric problem'?"

    The good news: No advanced math or computation is involved. You may have heard that miners are solving difficult mathematical problems—that's not exactly true. What they're actually doing is trying to be the first miner to come up with a 64-digit hexadecimal number (a "hash") that is less than or equal to the target hash. It's basically guesswork.
    LOL So much BS here. "You have to come up with a number that is equal to the target hash". Do you know the target hash? You have to know it first and then only you can say if you came with a hash!!!!

  • For any currency, the most important feature is the speed of transaction it offers. 
    How Long Do BTC Transactions Take? As per this page, "In general, Bitcoin transactions will be confirmed between 10 minutes and over a day later." 
    Now imagine this: There are 10 people ahead of you at a grocery store checkout and it can take to minutes to one day for a bitcoin transaction to process!! 
    Do you still think Bitcoins will be the currency of the future? I don't think so!

  • Did you read these words: "It's basically guesswork".? 
    We have heard that you can get paid for your genius, risks, ideas, or your hard work. However, with cryptos, we are creating a world, where you get paid for the guesses? Doesn't sound like we are making the world a joke?


Do you still think Cryptos are legitimate currencies? I guess I am not convinced yet.

To understand how mining works, I referred to this article on Investopedia:

How Does Bitcoin Mining Work? 
https://www.investopedia.com/tech/how-does-bitcoin-mining-work/

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